Ecological characterization of coral reef ecosystems informs fishery and ecosystem management, marine reserve design, and fills gaps in coastal planning needs. Advances in semi-automated habitat mapping using satellite imagery and ship-board sonars have increased accuracy and efficiency in producing management-relevant maps and geospatial products. But in most cases, managers are charged with managing habitats for the inhabitants (the fish). Fishery sonar has a 50-year history in fisheries research, but limited use in coral reef systems. Fishery sonars provide a means to rapidly map the water column and habitat use by reef fishes at resolutions and extents that are comparable to satellite- or sonar-derived habitat maps, providing spatial coverage orders of magnitude greater than allowed through visual census alone. This presentation will highlight three areas of research that underscore advantages and challenges of using fisheries sonar in complex and diverse reef systems: extending interpretation of coral reef habitat maps, assessing efficacy of marine reserves, and contributing to ocean education and outreach.

Chris Taylor is an ecologist in the Applied Ecology & Restoration Research Branch at National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science at NOAA's Beaufort Laboratory. His primary area of research is in coastal fisheries ecology and specializes in the use of sonar to observe and assess fishes in estuarine and ocean habitats. Prior to joining NOAA in 2008, Chris was a member of the research faculty at University of North Carolina and North Carolina State University. Chris is co-founder of the SouthEast Acoustics Consortium, a working-group of federal and state agencies, public and private industry and academic institutions established to advance the use of active acoustic remote sensing tools to aid fisheries and ecosystem research and management in the southeast US and US Caribbean.

This seminar was previosuly scheduled for January 12, 2011. Presentations are available remotely for free via a combination of phone (US & territories) & webcast. Remote access is limited to 50 connections on a first-come-first served basis. To participate remotely via phone and internet:

1. For the audio part of the presentation, Dial toll-free (U.S.) 1-877-708-1667. When prompted enter passcode 7028688 and the # sign. Please use your phone's mute button (*6 toggles on or off) during the presentation until you are ready to ask questions. The phone conference does not start until about five minutes before the seminar.
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For further information about this seminar please contact Tracy Gill at least 45 minutes before the seminar, or if it is within 5 minutes of the seminar start, call the toll free number above.

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The Coastal County Snapshots tool provides brief, county-level overviews of key resource management issues, including coastal flooding, ocean-related employment, and the benefits of wetlands in the coastal environment. Snapshots are illustrated with summaries of relevant data and graphical displays that help local officials understand the role of data in decision-making. A Web interface allows users to pick their topic and county of interest from maps or drop-down menus, and the tool generates PDF reports and graphics that can be saved or printed. The easy-to-use format makes Coastal County Snapshots a great learning and communications tool for local officials and their constituents. Snapshots are currently available for most coastal counties in the contiguous United States and Hawaii, employing data from a variety of sources such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Census Bureau, Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP), and Economics: National Ocean Watch (ENOW). This session will introduce users to the Coastal County Snapshots product line, the data and information contained in these products, and other related Center products.

In this webinar, participants will learn about

• See a demonstration of the Coastal County Snapshots tool
• Learn how the snapshots can help make the role of data in decision-making easier to understand and communicate
• Hear about the different snapshots and the data used to create them
• Find out how some coastal managers are putting the snapshots to use

Presentations are available remotely via a webinar. To register, visit http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/webinar/index.html. You will receive an email prior to the webinar containing information about join. This webinar will be recorded for on-demand playback. For further information please contact Krista.McCraken@noaa.gov.

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Ambiguity is uncertainty in the prediction of forecast uncertainty, or uncertainty in forecast probability of a specific event, associated with random error in a forecast probability density function (PDF) generated by an ensemble. In ensemble forecasting, ambiguity arises from finite sampling and deficient simulation of the various sources of forecast uncertainty. Poor simulation of model-related uncertainty may be the largest contributor given the challenges involved.

This study introduces two practical methods to estimate ambiguity and demonstrates them on 5-day, 2-m temperature forecasts from the Japanese Meteorological Agency Ensemble Prediction System. The first method uses the error characteristics of the calibrated ensemble as well as the ensemble spread to predict likely errors in forecast probability. The second method applies bootstrap resampling on the ensemble members to produce multiple likely values of forecast probability. Both methods include forecast calibration since ambiguity results from random and not systematic errors, which must be removed to reveal the ambiguity. Additionally, use of a more robust calibration technique (i.e., improves forecasts beyond only correcting average errors) is shown to reduce ambiguity. Validation using a low-order dynamical system reveals that both estimation methods have deficiencies but exhibit some skill, making them candidates for application to decision making.

Two possible approaches for applying ambiguity information are explored. One application approach, called uncertainty folding, merges ambiguity with forecast uncertainty information for subsequent use in standard risk-analysis decision making. Uncertainty folding is found to be of no practical benefit when tested in a low-order, weather forecast simulation. A second approach, called ulterior motives, attempts to use ambiguity information to aid secondary decision factors not considered in the standard risk analysis, while simultaneously maintaining the primary value associated with the probabilistic forecasts. Following ulterior motives, the practical utility of ambiguity information is demonstrated on real-world ensemble forecasts used to support decisions concerning preparation for freezing temperatures paired with a secondary desire for reduction in repeat false alarms. Sample products for communicating ambiguity to the user are also presented.

For further information about this seminar please contact Carl Mccalla or Bob Glahn

• Telecon: 1-866-628-9344, passcode 9782594

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TBD

Jim Winton is Chief of the Fish Health Section at the Western Fisheries Research Center where he heads a team of scientists, technicians, post-doctoral researchers, graduate students and visiting scientists working to improve methods for the detection of fish pathogens, determine factors affecting the epidemiology of fish diseases, and develop novel control strategies for reducing losses among both hatchery-reared and wild fish. Jim is also an Affiliate Professor in the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at the University of Washington where he serves on departmental or graduate student committees and teaches the occasional lecture. He has served as: President of the Fish Health Section of the American Fisheries Society, member of the Editorial Boards of the Journal of Aquatic Animal Health, Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, Journal of Fish Diseases, and Journal of Applied Ichthyology, and member of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, the American Type Culture Collection, the USDA Aquaculture Technical and Scientific Committee, and the Fish Disease Commission of the World Organization for Animal Health. Significant awards include the Department of Interior Meritorious Service Award (1999), American Fisheries Society Fish Health Section S. F. Snieszko Distinguished Service Award (2000) and the Department of Interior Distinguished Service Award (2006). He is an author of more than 150 scientific publications.

Remote Access: https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/j.php?ED=167620787&UID=1237300907&RT=MiM0 (this meeting does not require a password), click "Join". The audio conference only call-in toll number (US/Canada): +1-408-600-3600 Access code: 806 330 184. For assistance go to https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/mc click "Support" on the left navigation bar. For further information please contact Diane Tierney-Jamieson (206) 860-3380.

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Do you want to learn how to give better talks and presentations? Impress leadership with your thoughts and ideas? But you find yourself bored by typical self-help manuals and presentations by droll experts? Do you forget all that sage advice when crunch time on your next presentation arrives? Then come hear Dwayne Meadows update of a classic tongue-in-cheek guide for giving better presentations and learn from the (mostly real) mistakes of others.

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• Remote access is limited to first 50 participants. For further information about this seminar please contact Albert.E.Theberge.Jr@noaa.gov (301-713-2600 Ext. 115), or chris.belter@noaa.gov.

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This study proposes a dynamical performance-ranking method, called the Du-Zhou Ranking Method, to predict the relative performance of individual ensemble members by assuming the ensemble mean is a good estimation of truth. The results from this study show that the method (1) generally works well, especially for shorter ranges such as a one-day forecast; (2) has less error in predicting the extreme performers (e.g., the best and worst members) than the intermediate performers between; (3) works better when the variation in performance among ensemble members (called "error separation") is large; (4) works better when model bias is small; (5) works better in a multi-model than in a single-model ensemble environment; and (6) works best when using the magnitude difference between a member and its ensemble mean as the "Distance" measure in ranking members. The ensemble mean and median forecasts generally perform quite similar to each other.

As a demonstration, this method was applied to a weighted ensemble average to see if it can improve the ensemble mean forecast over a commonly used, simple equally-weighted ensemble averaging method. The result indicates that the weighted ensemble mean forecast based on this ranking method has a smaller systematic error. This superiority of the weighted over the simple mean is especially true for smaller-sized ensembles, such as 5 and 11 members, but it decreases with the increase in ensemble size and almost vanishes when the ensemble size increases to 21 members. There is, however, little impact on the random error and spatial patterns of ensemble mean forecasts. These results imply that it might be difficult to improve the ensemble mean by just weighting members when an ensemble reaches a certain size. However, it is expected that the effectiveness of weighted-averaging should be improved when ensemble spread is improved or when the ranking method itself is improved.

Remote access TBD. For further information about this seminar please contact Jun Du (301)763-8000 Ext. 7593

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The DMMP is a technical/policy based interagency program implemented 23 years ago after a 4.5 year $4.5 million dolllar interagency study, after regional NOAA studies highlighted sediment quality issues, and existing dredged material management in place lead to a lack of faith from regional stakeholders in the regional dredged material management. The study established 8 disposal sites in Puget Sound, state of the art evaluation procedures for evaluating dredged material, and management plans for managing the disposal and monitoring at those sites. The program now in its 23rd year of implementation is novel in adopting an interagency management model, sharing resources and decision-making, and public accountability to facilitate the effective management of dredged material.

TBD

Remote Access: https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/j.php?ED=167620787&UID=1237300907&RT=MiM0 (this meeting does not require a password), click "Join". The audio conference only call-in toll number (US/Canada): +1-408-600-3600 Access code: 806 330 184. For assistance go to https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/mc click "Support" on the left navigation bar. For further information please contact Diane Tierney-Jamieson (206) 860-3380.

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We will begin with an brief overview of DOI international programs ranging from migratory bird conservation to Earth observation, presented by David Downes, Assistant Director for Policy in DOI's Office of International Affairs. A panel from DOI's Office of the Solicitor will discuss legal issues relating to DOI international programs, with particular reference to marine issues and law of the sea. Speakers will include Michael Young, Assistant Solicitor for Fish and Wildlife; Maria Lurie from the Parks Branch; and Milo Mason from the Division of Mineral Resources. Additional information about DOI's Office of International Affairs is available at http://www.doi.gov/intl/index.cfm. Additional information about DOI's Office of the Solicitor is available at http://www.doi.gov/solicitor/index.html.

http://www.doi.gov/intl/Policy-Staff.cfm

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6. For audio in the US and Canada, dial 866-833-7307. The participant passcode is 8986360

• Remote access is limited to first 50 participants. For further information about this seminar please contact Albert.E.Theberge.Jr@noaa.gov (301-713-2600 Ext. 115), or chris.belter@noaa.gov.

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The National Climate Assessment (NCA) provides a current report of climate change impacts and vulnerability, evaluates the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation activities, identifies knowledge gaps, and helps the federal government prioritize climate science investments. It provides the science that can be used by communities around our Nation to create a more sustainable and environmentally-sound plan for our future. Alaska will contribute one of eight Regional Assessment to be included in the 2013 NCA. The purpose of the presentation is to present a draft of the 2013 Alaska Technical Report, and seek public feedback.

• See slides
• View webinar video (39 MB MP4)
• Listen to the webinar podcast

• Carl J. Markon
• Sarah Trainor

Pre-registration is strongly encouraged. To register please fill out the web-form at: http://ine.uaf.edu/accap/teleconference.htm#register, or contact: Brook Gamble, Assistant Coordinator and Outreach Specialist, (907) 474-7812, accap@uaf.edu. Please let us know if you intend to come in person. You are welcome to join us in our Fairbanks conference room. The ACCAP office is located on the second floor of the Denali Building, 3352 College Rd., Fairbanks.

How to Participate / Log-In to the Alaska Climate Webinar:

• Point your web browser to: http://infiniteconferencing.com/Events/accap/
• Enter Participant Code 83847342
• Enter the rest of the requested information (The name and organization you enter will be seen by other participants, but your contact information will remain confidential
• Click the blue "log-in" button

Audio / conference call:

• With a regular telephone dial: 1- (877) 594-8353
• When prompted, enter the Participant passcode: 83847342.Please mute your phone during the presentation. The audio is very sensitive and your external conversations and typing can be heard by other participants.

For support during a call, press *0 on your phone and a conferencing coordinator will assist you. For further information please contact Brook Gamble, Assistant Coordinator and Outreach Specialist, (907) 474-7812, accap@uaf.edu

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With the present upgrade of the WSR-88D operational network to dual polar (DP) capability, beginning in 2011 and ongoing, a new algorithm for determination of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE), known as "DP QPE", is being implemented in the Radar Product Generator. This algorithm, the prototype version of which was developed at the NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL), can choose among several base moments as the basis for the QPE estimate, at any location and time. Among these is the specific differential phase (Kdp), which is based solely on the Doppler phase shift between the horizontal & vertical channels and as such - unlike reflectivity-power based fields - is believed to be relatively insensitive to partial beam blockage. Hence, it holds promise to remain effective as a precipitation estimator even in the presence of rather substantial beam blockage. In the initial and early follow-on versions of the DP QPE algorithm, however, application of R(Kdp) has been limited to certain, specific situations where the predominant hydrometeor type has been determined to be 'heavy rain' or 'rain mixed with hail'. The potential exists for broader utilization of R(Kdp) at sites with significant terrain relief, but experience with the DP QPE algorithm at such sites has been limited, to date.

This presentation overviews the results of a study conducted at the NWS/Office of Hydrologic Development on a dual polar-equipped radar with characteristics/hardware similar to that of the WSR-88Ds. Base data were obtained from a field experiment conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) utilizing its dual polar, Sband unit ("S-Pol"), while located in northeastern Colorado during the summer of 2006. Four precipitation-estimation methodologies, similar to ones in the DP QPE algorithm, were coded and compared, statistically, against two types of verification fields, each across a range of partial beam blockage percentile-groupings at the 0.5° elevation angle. The results of that comparison, and potential applications to the DP QPE algorithm as units in variable-terrain environments are upgraded to dual polar capability, are provided.

We found that our R(Kdp) estimator did appear to be somewhat affected by the presence of partial beam blockage, with its performance generally declining as a function of increasing beam blockage (over 50%), though it could still perform effectively up to a 75% blockage threshold. We also found that a technique of enhancing the reflectivity-power field proportionately to beam blockage before obtaining the precipitation rate, R(Z'), employed in the PPS but only up to 50% blockage, showed promise for utilization up to 75% blockage.

• GotoMeeting:: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/join/451044368
• Teleconference: (866) 804-8142 passcode 2937055 (Attendance is limited to the first 25 callers)(

Please contact Ken Pavelle at 301-713-0640 x183 if you have any questions (If you have problems during the seminar please call 301-713-1658)

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• Edmund Chang: Using 20th Century Reanalysis Data to Examine Northern Hemisphere Storm Track Trend in the 20th Century
• Gil Compo: Evaluating the 20th Century Reanalysis
• Bob Kistler: Evaluating Recently Developed Reanalysis Projects
• Arun Kumar: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFRS)
• Download Webcast (mp4 format)

To view the slideshow:

1. Click the link below or copy and paste the link to a browser: https://cpomapp.webex.com/cpomapp/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=626677641
2. Enter your name and e-mail address, and click "Join Now". If necessary, enter the event passcode: 20910

To hear the audio:

1. Teleconference Number: 1-866-710-6541
2. Participant Passcode: 5841149

For further information about this seminar please contact Dan Barrie

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A variety of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) aimed at assessing the impact of future observing systems have been performed in the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. The experiments and done using the NCEP Global Forecasting System and are based on the T-511 Nature Run provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Prediction. So far, the most extensive set of experiments has been aimed at a notional US space-based wind lidar, roughly based on the GWOS concept developed by NASA in response to the NRC Decadal Survey. These experiments have been carried out at different horizontal resolutions, for extended periods of time, and have included various potential configurations of the GWOS mission. However, the OSSE test environment developed for the lidar experiments is now also used to study the impact of sensors from other systems such as JPSS and DWSS. We will provide an overview of the current status of the JCSDA OSSE test environment, of the experimental results obtained with it, and of our plans for its future development and use.

Remote access TBD: For further information about this seminar please contact Michiko Masutani (301) 763-8000 Ext 7551. See http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/seminars/index.html

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NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS)/Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment (CCMA) is launching the NOAA Coastal Ocean Science (COS) Blog. The goal of this seminar is the talk about the process NCCOS underwent to review, select and execute a new social media tool to promote their active, ongoing research. This overview is intended to be a case study of one office's approach to the social media planning and implementation. This presentation will outline the process of developing a blog for your organization, including how NCCOS was able to work within the guidelines of social media activities within the context of a federal agency. Additionally, we hope to provide insights on using social media for the promotion of science, and some key questions each office should consider before embarking on this process.

• Sara Eckert began working with CCMA in October 2011. Coming on as the communications intern, she was tasked with developing the Coastal Ocean Science Blog. Sara graduated from the University of Maryland, College Park in May 2011 with a B.S. in Ecology and Evolution and a minor in Leadership Studies.
• Becky Wynne joined CCMA in September 2011 as the center's communications and marketing specialist doing communications and legislative outreach. Previous to that, Becky was the national communications specialist for the Office of Response and Restoration's Marine Debris Program for two years, doing communications and legislative outreach. Becky has been in the communications field for over 15 years and has provided communications strategy and planning for public relations agencies in NY and DC, industry clients such as AT&T, IBM and Johnson & Johnson, an environmental non-profit on the Hill, and in the federal sector here at NOAA. She graduated from Richard Stockton College of New Jersey majoring in English with a minor in Biology.

Presentations are available remotely for free via a combination of phone (US & territories) & webcast. Remote access is limited to 50 connections on a first-come-first served basis. To participate remotely via phone and internet:

1. For the audio part of the presentation, Dial toll-free (U.S.) 1-877-708-1667. When prompted enter passcode 7028688 and the # sign. Please use your phone's mute button (*6 toggles on or off) during the presentation until you are ready to ask questions. The phone conference does not start until about five minutes before the seminar.
2. For the visual part of the presentation, you can access the web meeting by going to: http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?sigKey=mymeetings&i=744925156&p=&t=c. Enter meeting number 744925156 if needed; no passcode is required. Enter other required fields - First and last name, org. Check the box that that you have read the Privacy Policy, and click Proceed.

For further information about this seminar please contact Tracy Gill at least 45 minutes before the seminar, or if it is within 5 minutes of the seminar start, call the toll free number above.

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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

The Integration and Application Network (IAN) at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science has become a world leader in communicating science in the marine environment, having worked with organizations ranging from state and federal government agencies, to big NGOs, to small watershed groups. IAN will share some of their success stories, current and past projects, and ideas for the future of science communication. IAN will discuss report cards (Chesapeake Bay, Great Barrier Reef) and integrated assessments (Assateague National Seashore, Guam, and Samoa), as well as science communication for marine protected areas worldwide and science communication training. Current trends and opportunities in science communication will also be discussed. The projects detailed in the seminar should inspire ideas about how you can communicate your research and management results to a broad audience.

Dr. Dennison's primary mission within UMCES is to coordinate the Integration and Application Network (IAN), a group of scientists committed to solving, not just studying, environmental problems. IAN is a collection of Science Integrators and Science Communicators that work closely with various agencies, foundations and non-government organizations to develop integrated science products using principles of science communication. Bill rejoined UMCES in 2002 following a ten year stint at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia. He originally started at UMCES (then the Center for Environmental and Estuarine Science) in 1987 as a Research Assistant Professor based at Horn Point Laboratory. In Australia, Bill worked with an active Marine Botany group at the University of Queensland. Bill obtained his academic training from Western Michigan University (B.A), the University of Alaska (M.S), The University of Chicago (Ph.D), and State University of New York at Stony Brook at Stony Brook (Postdoc). Bill began studying seagrasses for his MS in Alaska in 1978, did his PhD research in Woods Hole, and then joined Stony Brook to study Long Island seagrasses and the “brown tide” algal blooms. Bill is currently co-leading an international group of seagrass scientists through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis on global trajectories of seagrasses, building a global seagrass database, writing a series of scientific papers and producing a suite of science communication products to raise the profile of seagrasses and seagrass conservation.

Presentations are available remotely for free via a combination of phone (US & territories) & webcast. Remote access is limited to 50 connections on a first-come-first served basis. To participate remotely via phone and internet:

1. For the audio part of the presentation, Dial toll-free (U.S.) 1-888-550-9506. When prompted enter passcode 1576930 and the # sign. Please use your phone's mute button (*6 toggles on or off) during the presentation until you are ready to ask questions. The phone conference does not start until about five minutes before the seminar.
2. For the visual part of the presentation, you can access the web meeting by going to: http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?sigKey=mymeetings&i=441694205&p=Seminar&t=c. Enter meeting number 441694205 if needed; no passcode is Seminar (Host is Mr Mark Mohs). Enter other required fields - First and last name, organization/office. Check the box that that you have read the Privacy Policy and click Proceed.

Please contact Susan Baker if you have questions about this seminar.

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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

Directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have unlocked vast new reserves of natural gas in the United States. Development of these resources is now well under way in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and is now beginning in Ohio. This study assesses whether the economic benefits generated by shale energy production justify incurring certain unavoidable environmental costs.

This webinar will provide information about:

• The nature of shale energy production and its broader implications for the world energy complex,
• Environmental impacts including the frequency of environmental incidents, their severity, and associated remediation efforts, and
• Estimates of the economic benefits and environmental costs of shale energy development

Tim Considine is the School of Energy Resources Professor of Energy Economics at the University of Wyoming (UW) and Director of the Center for Energy Economics and Public Policy. He was previously employed with the Pennsylvania State University, Bank of America, and the Congressional Budget Office. He holds a Ph.D. degree from Cornell, an M.S. from Purdue, and a B.A. from Loyola University of Chicago. See http://www.uwyo.edu/ser/faculty/considine.html

To receive remote access information, you must register at http://changingclimate.osu.edu/ before the start of the webinar. Registration is free, and log-in information will be sent to the email address you provide during registration. Please contact Jill Jentes Banicki, Ohio Sea Grant Assistant Director, with questions.

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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The sulfur dioxide was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol and increased the amount of background aerosol by orders of magnitude. The volcanic aerosol remained in the stratosphere for about three years, inducing a perturbation of the dynamics and chemistry of the stratosphere. We simulate the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 general circulation model, coupled to the GOCART aerosol module and the StratChem stratospheric chemistry module. The total optical depth from our simulations is in good agreement with SAGE-II and AVHRR data. In our simulations, the volcanic aerosol interacts with radiation, modifying the simulated meteorology, and with the stratospheric chemistry, by providing surface area for heterogeneous reactions. We describe the changes in the dynamics and chemical composition of the stratosphere induced by the absorption of longwave radiation by the aerosol from Mt. Pinatubo. The absorption of longwave radiation by the volcanic cloud induces a strong increase in the upwards-vertical winds at tropical latitudes, and a divergent motion southward and northward from the latitude of the eruption. On the other hand, the additional aerosol surface area available for heterogeneous chemistry leads to an increase in ozone in the middle stratosphere and a decrease in the lower stratosphere. We will show how the perturbation to both the stratospheric dynamics and the stratospheric chemistry are needed to explain the changes in ozone concentrations detected after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

Remote access TBD. For further information about this seminar please contact Owen Cooper [(303) 497-3599] or Ru-Shan Gao [(303) 497-5431].

• Sending an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe' in the subject or body (don't include the quotes)
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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

Northern California and Southern Oregon lie in a unique bioregion of the Pacific Northwest where weather and climate can vary greatly in time and space due to the interactions of complex terrain and sub-seasonal, seasonal, and longer-term oscillations. These oscillations affect snowpack and related water supply, impacting migratory bird and fish species, forests, and agriculture. Distinct wet and dry seasons amplify the importance of accurate seasonal forecasts. The MJO, AO, ENSO, and PDO all influence this local climate region and using the current and forecast state of these oscillations together allows for greater confidence in short term and seasonal forecasts. The Climate Team at the Medford NWS Forecast Office is developing new ways to use this information to localize and improve climate forecasts. Of particular concern, locally, are both short and long term outlooks for and during the western Fire Season. This presentation will show how accurate seasonal outlooks are important to this area, how the Medford Office is localizing and working to improve them, and will propose a project to examine the roll of the MJO in modulating the fire season in the Pacific Northwest. This project has the potential to save local and regional forest and land managers significant firefighting costs by improving the accuracy of precipitation forecasts in the one week to four-week time frame.

Brett Lutz is currently a Journeyman Forecaster, Incident Meteorologist, Fire and Climate Program Manager at the Medford, Oregon NWS Office. He has been forecasting weather on site at large wildfires in the western United States since 2006. He previously worked as a Journeyman Forecaster and Marine and Fire Program Manager in Eureka, California. He also spent 4 years on active duty as a weather officer in the United States Air Force at the Sembach, Germany European Weather Hub and as Wing Weather Officer at Langley Air Force Base in Virginia. He attended the University of Utah in Salt Lake City where he received a Bachelor of Science Degree in Meteorology, a Minor in Mathematics, and completed the AFROTC Program. His current focus is on fire weather and climate, particularly bridging the gap between short-term weather forecasts and climate change projections.

To participate remotely via phone and internet:

1. For the audio part of the presentation, Dial toll-free (U.S.) 1-866-756-2908. When prompted enter passcode 186099 and the # sign..
2. For the visual part of the presentation, you can access the web meeting by going to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/join/960129937.

For further information about this seminar please contact Jenna Meyers.

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• Subscribe to the OneNOAA Science Seminar RSS feed (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/seminars.xml)
• Access the seminars via google calendar (see how at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/Google_Calendar.html)

You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

Climate and Climate forecasts have become more commonplace over the past several years. As a result, the local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices have begun to field many more questions from the media, state agencies, agricultural community and the general public concerning the forecast beyond Day 7. To do this, the WFO forecaster has begun to work with forecasts fro the Climate Prediction Center to answer these questions. As the local customers have become more acclimated to these longer range forecast, the question of why, when and what type of weather will likely occur have become common question. As a result, the WFO forecasters have begun to look more at ENSO, Teleconnections and other Global Circulations to enhance the CPC forecast for the area in question. The idea behind this work is to provide enhancements to the CPC forecasts in a format that WFO forecasters can utilize in providing informed answers to the question they are asked.

Fred (Gene) E. Hatch III is currently a Forecaster at the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Springfield, Missouri. He received his Bachelors of Science degree in Environmental Geography with Mathematics Minor from Missouri State University in 1997. Fred began his weather career as a Ballistic Meteorologist in the U.S. Army and served in that capacity during Desert Storm. He volunteered at the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Springfield, Missouri in the summer of 1995 and was accepted as a STEP student in the summer of 1996. He began his NWS career as a Hydrometeorological Technician in Springfield, MO in the summer of 1999, crossed over to Forecaster Intern in Springfield, MO in 2004 and became a Journeyman Meteorologist in May 2005. Gene's research interests lie heavily in the connection between teleconnections and climate as forecasting aids for periods beyond the standard Day 7 forecast. Gene has attended numerous NWS Climate residence courses in an effort to become better versed in the field of climatology. He also works in the development of programs for elementary and middle school educators, staff and students as a basis for early learning for the protection of life and property.

To participate remotely via phone and internet:

1. For the audio part of the presentation, Dial toll-free (U.S.) 1-866-756-2908. When prompted enter passcode 186099 and the # sign..
2. For the visual part of the presentation, you can access the web meeting by going to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/join/960129937.

For further information about this seminar please contact Jenna Meyers.

• Sending an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe' in the subject or body (don't include the quotes)
• Visiting https://list.woc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/onenoaascienceseminars and filling in your email address
• Subscribe to the OneNOAA Science Seminar RSS feed (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/seminars.xml)
• Access the seminars via google calendar (see how at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/Google_Calendar.html)

You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

The Suomi NPP satellite was successfully launched on October 28, 2011 and carries the following five sensors:

• Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) providing advanced imaging and radiometric capabilities
• Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) providing improved high vertical resolution atmospheric temperature and moisture information
• Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) providing atmospheric temperature and moisture in all weather conditions
• Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) providing improved vertical and horizontal measurements of the distribution of ozone in the Earth's atmosphere
• Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor providing precise, calibrated global measurements of the earth's radiation budget

The Suomi NPP mission is the bridge between NOAA's Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) and NASA's Earth Observing System satellites to the next-generation Joint Polar Satellite System, or JPSS, which NOAA will operate. NPP will provide on-orbit testing and validation of sensors, algorithms, ground-based operations, and data processing systems that will be used in the operational JPSS mission. By the middle of the decade the first JPSS spacecraft will be launched into the afternoon orbit to provide significantly improved operational capabilities and benefits to satisfy critical civil and national security requirements for space-based, remotely sensed environmental data. The last satellite in the JPSS mission constellation is expected to continue operations until about 2037. The JPSS program has an active program of user engagement to maximize the benefits of NPP and JPSS for critical product and services such as weather forecasting.

At the seminar, an overview of the JPSS program, some early results from each instrument, and user engagement will be presented.

Video:

1. Go to JCSDA Seminar and click on the seminar title
2. Enter your name and email address
3. Enter the meeting password: JCSDAseminars707
4. Click "Join Now"
5. Follow the instructions that appear on your screen
6. For further information visit http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/JCSDASeminars.php

Phone Access:

• USA participants: 1-866-715-2479
• Passcode: 9457557
• Enter the meeting password: JCSDAseminar2010
• International: 1-517-345-5260

For further information please contact George Ohring

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• Access the seminars via google calendar (see how at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/Google_Calendar.html)

You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

TBD

TBD

Remote Access: https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/j.php?ED=167620787&UID=1237300907&RT=MiM0 (this meeting does not require a password), click "Join". The audio conference only call-in toll number (US/Canada): +1-408-600-3600 Access code: 806 330 184. For assistance go to https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/mc click "Support" on the left navigation bar. For further information please contact Diane Tierney-Jamieson (206) 860-3380.

• Sending an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe' in the subject or body (don't include the quotes)
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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

This seminar will focus on the work of state fish and wildlife agencies in habitat conservation through the lenses of the North American Model of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, the National Fish Habitat Partnership, and the work of the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies. Policy and state-federal partnership opportunities will be explored.

1. Go to http://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join.php?sigKey=mymeetings&i=742656968&=brownbag&t=c
2. Enter the required fields
3. Indicate that you have read the Privacy Policy
4. Click on Proceed
5. Passcode: brownbag
6. For audio in the US and Canada, dial 866-833-7307. The participant passcode is 8986360

• Remote access is limited to first 50 participants. For further information about this seminar please contact Albert.E.Theberge.Jr@noaa.gov (301-713-2600 Ext. 115), or chris.belter@noaa.gov.

• Sending an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe' in the subject or body (don't include the quotes)
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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) is used to develop statistically based seasonal forecast models for several snowfall regions across the contiguous United States. Forecast skill ranges from correct forecasts near 70% to greater than 90% of the time, for broad snowfall categories. For winter snowfall amounts and frequencies, previously documented relationships are corroborated (with the PNA, NAO, and ENSO), and new relationships are identified, such as with Eurasian snow cover extent. On a monthly time scale, the variables are less consistent, however, a few regions clearly show a progression of influential teleconnection patterns changing throughout the winter season. An example is the Western United States, which is more highly influenced by the PDO earlier in the snow season and the PNA later in the season. This research not only verifies previous studies connecting large-scale teleconnection patterns with snowfall, but also supports recent work positing a relationship between northern latitude surface cover (snow and sea ice) and its relationship to North American snow.

Remote access via webinar: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/778831122. For further information please contact Giselle Maira (734) 741-2242.

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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

A Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation capability is developed for the current 3DVAR-based GSI-EnKF hybrid data assimilation system. Like the classic TL/ADJ 4DVAR, four dimensional analyses are obtained with the Ensemble-4DVAR by fitting observations spanning the assimilation window. Temporal evolution of the error covariance within the assimilation window is realized through the use of ensemble perturbations. Forecasts initialized by the analyses generated by the Ensemble-4DVAR were compared with the 3DVAR-based GSI-EnKF hybrid for both summer and winter periods in 2010 assimilating all operational conventional and satellite observations. The presentation will focus on the summer period test. Various verification including global forecasts and hurricane track forecasts showed that the Ensemble-4DVAR improved upon the 3DVAR based hybrid. Strong balance constraint applied on the ensemble covariance was found to degrade the hurricane track forecasts but benefit the general global forecasts. Various extensions to Ensemble-4DVAR is added and being tested for the 2011 hurricane season and for the preparation of the coming hurricane season.

Recent results studying the impact of observations using the hybrid GSI-EnKF hybrid will also be presented. The impacts of observations assimilated using the classic GSI and the hybrid GSI-EnKF were compared for a winter month in 2010 through Observation System Experiment (OSE). Data denial experiments were conducted to access impacts of observations of interest including both conventional observations and satellite observations such as AMSU radiances. It was found that forecasts by the hybrid GSI-EnKF was better than GSI in both the control and data denial experiments. In some verification, the hybrid assimilating less data was better than the GSI assimilating all observations. It was also found the magnitude and distribution of observation impacts depended not only on the types of observations but also whether GSI or hybrid GSI-EnKF data assimilation methods are used. The relative impact between rawinsonde and AMSU also depended on whether GSI or hybrid GSI-EnKF data assimilation was used and also the types of verifications. In addition to the OSE, the ensemble based observation impact metric has been applied to estimate the impact of observations assimilated by the hybrid GSI-EnKF. Initial results show that ensemble based observation impact metric can provide good estimate of the impact and the quality of the estimate can depend on the types of observations and the forecasts of interest. Progress and recent results on unifying and testing the GSI-EnKF hybrid for regional modeling systems will be updated in the seminar as time permits.

Remote access TBD: For further information about this seminar please contact Daryl Kleist (301) 763-8000 Ext 7702. See http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/seminars/index.html

• Sending an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe' in the subject or body (don't include the quotes)
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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].

A database of trace gases and aerosols with near global coverage derived from high vertical resolution profile measurements, has been assembled, the "Binary DataBase of Profiles" (BDBP). The database includes measurements from different satellite- (HALOE, POAM II and III, SAGE I and II, ILAS and ILAS II, LIMS, GOMOS) and ground-based systems (ozonesondes). In addition to the primary product of ozone, the database contains secondary measurements of other trace gases, aerosol extinction, and temperature. All data are subjected to very strict quality control and for every measurement an error estimate is included. To facilitate use, each measurement is indexed in three different ways: (1) geographic latitude, longitude, altitude (in 1 km steps) and time, (2) geographic latitude, longitude, pressure (at levels about 1 km apart) and time, (3) equivalent latitude, potential temperature and time. In an updated version 2.0 of the BDBP two more instances will be added: (4) geographic latitude, longitude, altitude relative to the local tropopause and time, and (5) geographic latitude, longitude, pressure relative to the local tropopause and time. Because the measurements are provided in their original temporal resolution rather than derived monthly means, the BDBP is applicable to a wider range of analyses than databases containing only zonal mean monthly mean data.

In the seminar, an overview of the BDBP will be presented. Additionally, two projects that are based on ozone data from the database, analyses of South Pole ozonesonde data and the creation of a vertically resolved, global, zonal mean, monthly mean ozone data set, will be discussed. A current project will also be introduced, where long-term SAGE II and GOMOS ozone measurements are combined, and offsets and drifts between the data sets removed, to form a continous ozone data set that covers several decades and extends to recent years.

Remote access TBD. For further information about this seminar please contact Owen Cooper [(303) 497-3599] or Ru-Shan Gao [(303) 497-5431].

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It is well established that marine mammals accumulate some of the highest concentrations of PCBs and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs) found in wildlife around the world, thus putting some species and populations at risk of adverse health effects. This arises from a combination of residing in contaminated habitats and life history features that favor POPs accumulation and retention, including long lifespan, large blubber stores and high trophic level and feeding rates. Because of this, marine mammals are often selected for monitoring spatial and temporal trends of POPs with samples being collected from stranded animals, by tissue biopsies or from harvesting. In effect, marine mammals are being used as recording devices to inform us about the state of contaminants in the environment even though we have limited understanding of how they “work” and how POPs concentrations in their tissues relate to those in other parts of the ecosystem. This presentation will examine the underlying processes that control POPs accumulation in marine mammals and give rise to observed differences in concentration related to age, sex and reproductive activity, as well as differences between species. Processes examined include dietary uptake and fecal elimination, and contaminant transfer by lactation. Benefits of “knowing your recording device” will be illustrated using case studies with beluga whales, orcas, bottlenose dolphins, Arctic ringed seals and harbor seals.

Dr. Brendan E. Hickie is an assistant professor in the Environmental and Resource Studies Program at Trent University, Peterborough, Canada, where he conducts research modeling the fate, bioaccumulation and risk of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury in aquatic ecosystems. Brendan has a Ph.D. in biology from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and 27 years of experience in environmental toxicology and chemistry in academic, government and consulting settings. His academic research interests focus on the fate and bioaccumulation of organic contaminants, and more recently mercury, by aquatic organisms including plankton, fish, marine mammals, mink and river otter. He has been particularly active in contaminants research in the Arctic over the past 15 years through the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program.

His current research includes: studies to better characterize dietary uptake efficiency of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) by wildlife and their transfer to progeny via lactation; field and lab-based studies examining mercury accumulation by mink and otter aimed at developing a multicompartment bioaccumulation model; characterizing temporal trends of POPs and associated risk in marine mammal populations from British Columbia (killer whales and harbor seals), South Carolina (bottlenose dolphins) and the Arctic (beluga whales and ringed seals); and studies on the trophic transfer of POPs in the Arctic marine food web. Through this research he has developed considerable expertise in modeling the multimedia fate of organic chemicals using fugacity and kinetics-based models and their bioaccumulation by individual species and through food webs. Brendan's recent consulting experience has included scientific peer review for US EPA (Water Quality Criteria; Methodology for Deriving Ambient Water Quality Criteria for the Protection of Human Health (2000); and the associated Technical Support Document Volume 3: Site-Specific Bioaccumulation Factors) and for Environment Canada (High Priority Substance Profiles for Ecological Effects).

Relevant Publications

• Hickie, B. E., P. S. Ross, R. W. Macdonald, J. K. B. Ford. (2007). Killer whales (Orcinus orca) face protracted health risks associated with lifetime exposure to PCBs. Environ. Sci. Technol. 41: 6613-6619.
• Hickie, B. E., D. C. G. Muir, R. F. Addison, P. F. Hoekstra. (2005). Development and application of bioaccumulation models to assess persistent organic pollutant temporal trends in arctic ringed seal (Phoca hispida) populations. Science of the Total Environment. 351-352: 413-426.
• Macdonald, R., D. Mackay, B. Hickie. (2002). Contaminant amplification in the environment. 36(23):456A-462A.

Remote Access: https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/j.php?ED=167620787&UID=1237300907&RT=MiM0 (this meeting does not require a password), click "Join". The audio conference only call-in toll number (US/Canada): +1-408-600-3600 Access code: 806 330 184. For assistance go to https://nwfsc.webex.com/nwfsc/mc click "Support" on the left navigation bar. For further information please contact Diane Tierney-Jamieson (206) 860-3380.

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Come and meet David Withrow one of your fellow NOAA colleagues who was part of the team in Barrow, Alaska, that inspired the movie Big Miracle. In 1988, Withrow played a important role in "Operation Breakthrough," a two-week gray whale rescue off the coast of Barrow, Alaska. This rescue effort caught the world's attention and is the inspiration behind the film Big Miracle, which was recently released by Universal Pictures. David Withrow will share his photos and talk about his experience. For additional information see NOAA's Big Miracle Worker.

No remote access available

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The NOAA Habitat Blueprint provides a forward looking framework for NOAA to think and act strategically across programs and with partner organizations to address the growing challenge of coastal and marine habitat loss and degradation. Through the Blueprint, we will increase the effectiveness of our efforts to improve habitat conditions for fisheries, coastal and marine life, and coastal communities, so habitats can continue to provide the economic, cultural, and environmental benefits our society needs and enjoys. Additional information (including the blueprint) can be found at http://www.habitat.noaa.gov/blueprint/index.html.

Remote access via GotoMeeting. Reserve your Webinar seat now at: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/420496464. For further information about this seminar please contact Ken Pavelle (301) 713-0640 Ext 183 or Nicole Kurkowski (301) 713-3391 Ext 137.

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Since tropical cyclones (TCs) are often highly destructive, the improvement in the track and intensity forecasts is important in terms of disaster prevention and mitigation. Generally speaking, a TC track is primarily determined by the large-scale environment in which the tropical cyclone is embedded, while the TC intensity is dependent on the smaller scale internal dynamics as well as its interaction with the environment. Thus, we should select a better metric and control variables suited to each problem toward the improved forecasts. In this presentation, I will talk on several works that I and collaborators have recently engaged in.

First, I introduce a new sensitivity analysis in which a TC-position itself is taken as a metric. It objectively identifies the important regions toward the reduction in the track forecast errors. This sensitivity is interpreted as the slope of regression line (or its relative) between the TC position and initial perturbation based on ensemble run by use of an incremental approach. Besides its clear objectivity, this Incremental Typhoon-position-Oriented Sensitivity Analysis (ITO-SAn) has an advantage of extended applicability to the cases with a high nonlinearity even when the distribution of ensemble TC positions has bimodal peaks since the linear time evolution of perturbations is not assumed. As a first step toward illustrating ITO-SAn's clear objectivity and versatility, it is applied to the case of TC Shanshan (2006). The sensitivity field of the typhoon central latitude with respect to vorticity field is characterized by several features such as the swirling pair pattern centered at the initial typhoon position and the signature of Rossby waves away from the TC center.

As for the intensity modeling, it is well known that uncertainty in the values of air-sea heat and momentum exchange coefficients has a detrimental effect since TCs intensify and maintain their circulations against surface friction through the self-inducement of anomalous heat fluxes from the sea surface. Thus, we have proposed the optimization of the air-sea exchange coefficients (in addition to the initial value) through the variational data assimilation (DA) method toward the better TC intensity representation. In an OSSE experiment with the idealized TC model, these coefficients are successfully improved toward the true value by digesting the available observational data, and it yields the improvements in the analysis field of the maximum wind speed and the inner core structure. This work has evolved to the collaborative work with the regional DA system (JNoVA) developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The case study of TC Chaba (2010) indicates that the additional optimization of air-sea exchange coefficients works to halve the difference of the maximum wind speed between JMA best track and the DA analysis field and to decrease the misfit between model result and observational data by 4.1-22.4% after some spin-up cycles.

Remote access TBD. For further information about this seminar please contact Michiko Masutani (301)763-8000 Ext. 7551 or Takamesa Miyoshi (301-405-7797)

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One line of reasoning for understanding, and predicting, the intensity of tropical cyclones appeals to variability in the storm environment, such as sea-surface temperature or tropospheric wind shear. Forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity, however, have been resistant to improvements in these environmental parameters. In order to understand the predictability of tropical cyclones, we propose that a necessary first step is to identify those aspects of storm variability that are independent of the environment. In order to isolate this "intrinsic" variability, numerical experiments will be discussed for idealized storms in fixed, uniform, environments.

Video Presentation (EchoPlayer)

Remote access will not be available. Presentations will be recorded as well as powerpoint slides so anyone can watch the seminars at their leisure. For further information about this seminar please contact Jonathan Gourley or Race Clark

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It is possible from both a scientific and philosophical perspective to state that climate models cannot be validated. However, with the realization that the scientific investigation of climate change is as much a subject of politics as of science, maintaining this formal notion of "validation" has significant consequences. For example, it relegates the bulk of the work of many climate scientists to an exercise of model evaluation that can be construed as ill-posed. Even within the science community this motivates criticism of climate modeling as an exercise of weak scientific practice. Stepping outside of the science community, statements that validation is impossible are used in political arguments to discredit the scientific investigation of climate, to maintain doubt about projections of climate change, and hence, to prohibit the development of public policy to regulate the emissions of greenhouse gases.

With the acceptance of the impossibility of validation, scientists often state that the credibility of models can be established through an evaluation process. A robust evaluation process leads to the quantitative description of the modeling system against a standard set of measures. If this process is standardized as institutional practice, then this provides a measure of model performance from one modeling release to the next. It is argued, here, that such a robust and standardized evaluation of climate models can be structured and quantified as "validation."

Arguments about the nuanced meaning of validation and evaluation are a subject about which the climate modeling community needs to develop a standard. It does injustice to a body of science-based knowledge to maintain that validation is "impossible." Rather than following such a premise, which immediately devalues the knowledge base, it is more useful to develop a systematic, standardized approach to robust, appropriate validation. This stands to represent the complexity of the Earth's climate and its investigation. This serves not only the scientific method, but the communication of the results of that scientific investigation to other scientists and to those with a stake in those scientific results. It sets a standard, which is essential practice for simulation science with societal ramifications.

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

Remote access TBD. For further information about this seminar please contact Owen Cooper [(303) 497-3599] or Ru-Shan Gao [(303) 497-5431].

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You can subscribe or unsubscribe at any time from the serv list. If you already receive an email with our seminar updates, then you do not need to subscribe to this list. For information about the OneNOAA Science Seminars or to suggest a speaker please contact Hernan.Garcia@noaa.gov. Links to resources outside the Federal Government are provided as a convenience and for informational purposes only [NOAA Disclaimer].